Sour Grapes

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Results of 2 Nov 2004 General Election (winners in bold; click on office for more detail)

PA State House of Representatives—152nd District
- Ross Schriftman (D)
- Sue Cornell (R-incumbent)
State Attorney General
- Jim Eisenhower (D)
- Marakay Rogers (Green)
- John Ewbank (Libertarian)
- Tom Corbett (R)
State Auditor
- Jack Wagner (D)
- Ben Price (Green)
- Berlie Etzel (Libertarian)
- Joe Peters (R)
State Treasurer
- Max Lampenfeld (Constitution)
- Robert Casey (D)
- Paul Teese (Green)
- Darryl Perry (Libertarian)
- J. Craige Pepper (R)
US House of Representatives—13th District
US Senate
President

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since 12 Apr 2004

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FiveThirtyEight.com: Quick Thoughts From Kansas

[Quoted in its entirety.]

Six points of general consensus among the reporters, strategists and analysts that were present at the Dole Institute.

1. Obama will have a relatively long honeymoon period, and the public will be inclined to be relatively sympathetic toward him.
1a. The Democrats' largest problem is with the public perception of their Congressional leadership.

2. Obama, politically speaking, has handled his transition very well. The Republicans on the panel felt extremely reassured by appointments like Jim Jones and Robert Gates. This bought Obama a huge amount of political capital.

3. The Republican bench is relatively inadequate at the present time in terms of candidates for national office.
3a. On the other hand, the 2012 Presidential cycle is already being looked at as something of a lost cause. Some of the stronger candidates—both known and unknown—might want to wait until 2016 to run.
3b. In the long-term, the future of the party probably lies in governor's offices. If the Republicans are smart, this may be their major focus in 2010-12, as opposed to the Congress and even perhaps the Presidency.

4. Sarah Palin is, for the time being, the public face of the Republican Party.
4a. This is not necessarily a good thing for the Republican Party.

5. The compressed primary calendar is problematic.
5a. The compressed primary calendar is unlikely to change.

6. Obama ran the best campaign we have seen in a generation.

I'd say that's it in a nutshell!

Original post by Namenlosen Trinker at 12/05/2008 06:25:00 PM Eastern time :: 0 comment(s) ::

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